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标题: 转帖：一个剥头皮的八千点生活 [打印本页]
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-18 15:23
标题: 转帖：一个剥头皮的八千点生活
....Scalping the pipping pip outta it....Live...
Results from this thread so far.....(this page updated Daily)
14Jan Lot 1:.+075 Lot 2: +141 Total: +216
15Jan Lot 1:.+142 Lot 2: +330 Total: +472
16Jan Lot 1:.+130 Lot 2:.+167 Total: +297
19Jan Lot 1:.+033 Lot 2:.+087 Total: +120 (US Bank Holiday)
20Jan Lot 1:.+258 Lot 2: +126 Total: +384
21Jan Lot 1:.+205 Lot 2: +525 Total: +730
22Jan Lot 1:.+202 Lot 2: +178 Total: +380
23Jan Lot 1:.+273 Lot 2: +225 Total: +498
26Jan Lot 1:.+155 Lot 2: +462 Total: +617
27Jan Lot 1:.+169 Lot 2: +212 Total: +382
28Jan Lot 1:.+050 Lot 2: +214 Total: +264
29Jan Lot 1:.+143 Lot 2: +366 Total: +509
30Jan Lot 1:.+136 Lot 2: +220 Total: +356
04Feb Lot 1:.+195 Lot 2:.+287 Total: +482
05Feb Lot 1:.+104 Lot 2:.+270 Total: +374
06Feb Lot 1:.+188 Lot 2:.+299 Total: +487
09Feb Lot 1:.+545 Lot 2:.+404 Total: +949
12Feb Lot 1:.+370 Lot 2:.+515 Total: +830
13Feb Lot 1: +060 Lot 2:.+199 Total: +259(Short day, only 6 trades)
_________________Running Total: +8606
Total Trades:..................461
Winning and B/E Trades:.424
Losing Trades:..................57
Max Consecutive wins before losing trade: 24
Max Consecutive Losing trades: 3
Largest drawdown: 45 pips
Hello fellow traders,
I am normally a mid to long term trader, but I will be keeping a journal of some of my live scalping trades here (whilst I have a bit of free time).
If I give you my trading story as maybe this would help you to understand how I trade. Like many I entered Forex blindly and looked to wherever I could for advice and guidance.
Firstly, when I started trading, I just entered trades thinking “I am sure price will go here...” Unfortunately I was correct, this lead to the feeling of “this is easy, I’m an expert...”LOL. Of course the emotions had taken control and before I knew it I was trading with huge risk. The days came when the market decided I was just another wannabie and killed my account.
I was naive and believed in a quick route to riches.
Having lost money numerous times again, I decided to check through the forums looking for a profitable system. I thought to myself “OK, I’ll just copy what other profitable traders are doing with indicator x, y and z. Collecting pips will be like taking candy off a baby” Yet again I was disappointed. Systems that worked well in ranges chewed up accounts in trending markets and visa versa. I would stare at the charts and see that the indicators were telling me BUY/SELL and watch with distain as the trade went in the opposite direction to what the indicators showed was a great entry.
This was the point that I noticed that if I had gone with what I saw in price instead of what the indicators were saying, I would have been successful. I couldn’t go down this route though, surely I must be wrong and it’s just a fluke? Nobody can trade like that? It’s just suicide. I dismissed those thoughts of just trading price action and persisted with indicators/systems until I yet again began to lose money.
I had actually seen that if I had just traded what “I SAW” and not what the indicators said I would be surviving the markets, but still I refused to believe in myself.
This is the point I came to, I had ruined my first 2 accounts and lost tens of thousands of pounds (real money), I was so emotionally drained I just pulled out the remainder of my cash and thought “It’s just not possible to make any money in Forex over the long term. I’m sure traders in the 5% are doing well, good luck to them, I’m just not cut out for it”.
I turned my back on the markets for a while until I was watching CNBC one day and saw a commentator talking about commodities with a gold and oil chart thrown up. I was looking at the chart on TV and thought...I would sell right “here”. Gold hit its high the next day and fell the next week without looking back. I posted this on another forum just to record my trade and gave a commentary as price was about to drop. The forum still exists (that forum is not Forex related but has the trade time/date stamped.) I still didn’t want to trade again even though I would have made a fortune. Next I looked at the OIL chart, same again, just a naked chart. I watched the ticks and saw where to sell...I sold $2 from the high. May sound like complete bullocks to many of you and I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t believe me, I have nothing to prove to myself.
Like a scolded child, I reopened my forex charts.....I saw the indicators...off they went. I ditched the candles/commentary/pre-news release expected figures/experts advice/S=R/Pivots/Fibs and just looked at price “now”.
I thought to myself “OK. I don’t have to make this work. I don’t have to make money. I don’t need forex. The promise of “get rich quick” had faded into distant memory. The hype of “Well, the advice from Mr X must be right because he is a chief trader for a major institution” passed me by. I frankly didn’t care what anyone said about price direction.
I watched the price again and again, hour after hour, day after day. Nothing else. I began to place my trades again. The first few trades were profitable, but I had learnt not to let my ego and emotions take over. I had lost any kind of feeling and knew it was a good thing. The trades were numerous and consistently profitable, but still I always thought before entering a trade “How much could I lose here?” instead of “How much can I profit?”. My main purpose was to ensure I didn’t try and get revenge on the market if price went against me. Losing trades became just a number; winning trades became just a number. A losing trade resulted in thinking “I was wrong. The market wasn’t ready for my entry. Move along.” and was quickly forgotten about. Likewise, a winning trade jumping +300 pips with a 10 or 15 SL resulted in my thinking “I was right. The market was ready for my entry. Move along.” And was quickly forgotten about.
I wouldn’t try and add up my wins/loses until I had finished trading every day. If I had a great day, I would think “OK, don’t change anything.” If I had a losing day I would think “OK, don’t change anything.”
I gradually learnt that the only way to learn trading is the hard way. I have learnt my lessons from my past mistakes and now just see trading as “slightly boring”. I have learnt there are no get rich quick holy grails. I have learnt that the only profitable way to trade for me is by just looking at price.
I really don’t care what is happening on the news tomorrow; I don’t let it affect my trading. I don’t care what “might” happen with interest rates. I don’t care that the market is “showing a potential retrace” according to experts. All I care about when I trade is “now”. I am absorbed into the chart and price, I see nothing else. Nothing distracts me whilst I trade. (Posting my trades here in real time was difficult but is becoming easier), the time passes quickly and then I know when to stop. When I stop I count the results for the day, but even if negative it doesn’t bother me. I know the week will be positive.
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-18 15:24
标题: 续上
I have learnt to disassociate myself from “feeling” whilst I trade. I only trade what I see. I trade the miniscule movements second by second and watch as they unfold into large positive trades. I can’t put it into words, really. It’s just something that develops within you over time. Time and anguish spent learning the hard way brings many to this point of just watching price.
I don’t think I am great, I don’t think the market owes me... I do care that each week collects a profit from the market table.
I can’t say anymore than that really. It’s a voyage of self discovery. It hurts, but eventually yields results.
I should have stuck with my original trading style at the very beginning, but the problem was I needed to learn Money Management, Emotional control and numerous other aspects of trading.... the hard way. I look at it as a blessing in disguise to have arrived back at this point.
The route down this trading path has turned out to be a complete circle, the circle leading back to myself.
I have found the “Holy Grail” after much searching. We just “don’t see the wood for the trees”. The Holy Grail is within you.
Please read this free short book "My Secrets of Day trading Stocks/Day traders Bible"written in the early 1900's by Richard Wyckoff, a legendary Wall Street tape reader. It's how I trade, but explains it better and in much more detail than I can. (Many thanks to FXsurfer for the link : ) )
http://www.tradingfives.com/wyckoff/chapter1.htm
My Trades
I will be using the tick chart. The trades will be numerous, and only on days when I have time to post. Obviously there will be a slight delay from entering the trade to when the trade is posted, but I envision this to be only a few seconds. This journal will hopefully help me develop my trading style over the next few months and get me back on track with pure price in the smaller timeframes.
Due to the quickness of entries my posts will form the following format so I can post them immediately:
CLOSED TRADE SELL 11745 1+10, 2+87 (EUR/JPY closed trade at 11745)
(First lot closed at +10, all trades are entered with 2 lots, 1st always closed at +10)
(Second lot was closed at +87 in this example before reversing)
CLOSED TRADE 11745 1+10, 2+87
SELL 11743 (existing buy trade was closed at 11745, rentered sell at 11743
Stop Loss: -15, SL will be moved to BE on 2nd Lot when 1st Lot closed at +10.
I stop and reverse most trades and will close the day’s trading with
the total accumulated results. If a trade immediately goes against me and I think it will approach my SL then I am out an await another entry
I use a 1min Line chart only. I look at a wider chart to assess where to enter and then zoom down to fine tune entries and exits. Chart examples on page 5.
I used to work with indicators for scalping, but was fustrated with the number of trades that went against me...
I came to realise that the smart money had already traded before the small-fry such as myself entered a trade. They knew that we trade based on indictors..lagging ones. I decided to just watch price and have come to know where to nip in and out of the trade. I just watch the price stall or accelerate/attempt to make higher highs/lower lows and decide when to jump in and out.
I use the MT4 platform to assess entry/exit analysis and I use a seperate Broker for trades. Speed is of the essence and I always have the BUY/SELL windows open set to a default of -15 SL, 2 lots, 1st lot TP at +10, 2nd Lot moved to B/E when 1st Lot closed at +10. 2nd Lot is allowed to run until I see price stalling...sometimes I may lock in extra pips as the price moves but by locking TP at B/E I can catch some large moves of 200+. With a SL of 15 (ie 30 due to 2 lots) the reward risk ratio suits me.
I also trade mid and long term, but due to the uncertainty of the market and uselessness of indicators this year I have traded more and more from a black line and nothing else...with some success.
My spread on EUR/JPY is 2 pips, so this must be taken into consideration. I do not post my trades with the spread, but obviously from each trade I am paying the brokers....I sometimes trade over 40 times a day and the comission can really add up, but it is just a necessay evil I put up with.
Due to the nature of my trading I get worn out quite quickly, after 2/3 losing trades in a row I take a break or stop trading for the day. The market is always there to give me some pips when I come back rested and fresh.
Sometimes I take a break from trading for a few days at a time, this clears my head completely and I can pull some good results out of the bag when I resume trading.
Ranges and Trends:
The problem with mid/long term trades is knowing when you are going from a trend into a range or vis versa...not knowing chews up accounts, and when you realise eventually that you have entered a range your account has suffered...thats my experience anyway...the beauty of this method in this thread is that ranges and trends dont matter, the smaller timescales lead to the larger timescales...everything is dictated by what happens NOW, not in 1 day, 1 hour, 15 mins etc...Price history is irrelevant to me...PRICE NOW is all that counts, what is happening with that price second by second, minute by minute.
Hopefully you will see as I trade what I mean by this, I don't want to say I "feel" price, because that sounds stupid....I just observe the fight between bulls and bears and pick a side, I can see when the fight is evenly matched, or if one is about to rip control from the other. Sometimes I am wrong, in fact I am wrong quite a lot, but money management and win ratio keep me in the boxing ring.
I wish that newbies entering into Forex where not taken for a ride by the "Snake Oil" salesmen peddling their "Buy my system", "Buy my Expert Robot", "Buy my signals" crap. I wish they would ask themselves why the owners of these systems arent using them to make billions? Unfortunately I have been there and fell for the Snake Oil when I started trading, I understand why newbies fall into this trap. I hope they read this and learn that a moving black line (or candlesticks if you prefer, I found them a bit unreliable though) is all you need.
OK, bit of a rant there, I hope you understand where I am coming from. This is not going to turn into a "Ohhh, I think I'll start charging for this" like a famous Oz trader we all know of. I earn enough and if I can make even one person see that price without lagging indicators is all you need to suceed and do well in trading; then I'll be happy.
Anyway, I'll keep the journal going till I'm happy that I'm not interferring with my rolling trades, which was a problem for me, also, you need to see what my losing streak looks like and I am going to adjust this over the next few weeks.
Thanks for letting me rant, lets see how I get on...
Cheers
Shakesfx
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-18 15:27
核心，这家伙输红眼了。
后来做ej，因为它的平台点差是2点。
1分钟图
下两单合约，15点止损。
第一单平于10点利润处，
当第一单平仓时，移动第二单至开仓价。
over
[ 本帖最后由 myj 于 2009-2-18 15:33 编辑 ]
作者: 无名 时间: 2009-2-18 23:03
没看懂进出场依据，靠盘感？
作者: tlwson 时间: 2009-2-19 02:02
谁大体翻译一下，光核心看不明白
作者: KK999 时间: 2009-2-19 06:09
就是教你别参考别人的赚钱方式
也不要看指标
只要看价格就可以啦,
的确是"盘感"
一天交易约30~40次吧
平均也差不多赚10点.
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-19 11:36
标题: 剩下的继续翻译，稍后回来
亲爱的汇友，
正常情况下我是一个长线交易者，但是我也会在这里记录一下我真实的剥头皮的历程（当我有空余时间的时候)
假如我告诉你我交易的故事，那么你就会明白我如何交易了，就像当初我进入这个外汇市场时得到的建议一般。
首先，当我开始交易的时候，我就会想，“我肯定价格会这样走……”幸运的是，我是正确的，这页导致了这样的感觉“这很容易，正是我期盼的……”想当然的情绪主导着我，并在我意识到它之前，使我的交易一直存在着巨大的风险。而在市场准备爆掉我的账户之前，我一直天真的以为这是一条快速的致富之路。
在许多次输钱之后，我决定仔细在论坛（指forexfactory）里找一个能盈利的系统。我对自己说“好吧，我像其它获利的交易员那样做，用指标x、y、z，最后盈利就会像用糖果哄小孩一样简单”。然而，我再次失望了。系统在一定范围内工作的很好，但也让我的账户上下浮动，甚至有时反转。我盯着图表，看着指标告诉我是买还是卖。然而却看到价格朝着指标所示的反方向行走。真丢人。
这点也让我注意到假如我按照价格运动的方向去操作而不是指标表述的那样，我想我会成功的。我不能肯定这个想法，却认为它是错误的，这紧紧是个侥幸？没有人能像这样交易？这是自杀的行为。我否定了按照价格运动方向交易的这个想法，并且坚持着按照指标/系统，一直到我不断不断的输掉我的钱。
我真的相信加入我按照我所看到的交易而不是指标告诉我的来交易，那么我会在这个市场中存活下来，但我拒绝相信自己。
这也是我来这的原因。在我输掉了数万磅（真钱）之后和爆了两个仓之后，我把剩下的钱取回了。我觉得“外汇里不可能长期挣钱，我敢肯定那交易的5%的人做得很好，但只是运气使然。我做不到。”
作者: tlwson 时间: 2009-2-19 12:35
谢谢翻译，满有趣的
作者: coollyw 时间: 2009-2-19 14:29
我看了他的全部文章和一些图片，感觉还是很遥远，看来短线不适合我。他要看价格在临界点的波动变化和速度变化和是不是停留长时间还是短时间等等，来判断是不是会突破，道理是简单的，但是他盈利里面的大头是50-100点左右的单子，我看了他的图，难以把握他到底如何持单，因为很多时候在中途就会出现一些明显的反向信号了，如果是我做，可能中途就退出了。
[ 本帖最后由 coollyw 于 2009-2-19 14:36 编辑 ]
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-19 17:41
标题: 休息，待会回来
当一天我看cnbc的时候，看到一个评论员在谈论关于黄金和石油的图表时，我重新关注了 一下市场。我正看着电视中的图表并考虑……我应该在“这里”卖出。黄金在第二天触碰了它的高点，并在接下来的几周都没有回调。我把它发表在另一个论坛用来记录我的交易，并预测了价格大致下降位置。这个论坛依旧存在（它和外汇不相关但有交易记录的时间戳）。我仍然不想去再次交易因为我认为我只是碰巧蒙中了。接下来我看着原油的图表，同样的，是一个裸图。我看着ticks并看到哪里去卖。我从高点卖了2美金。这听起来也许会打击你并且你不相信我我也不会怪你，但我并不是想证明自己。
像一个被责备的小孩一样，我重新打开了我的外汇图表……我看到指标……把它们移除了。我放弃了蜡烛、评论、新闻预测、专家建议、sar、pivots、fibs等，现在只看价格本身。我对自己说，“好了，我想它不会起作用，我也赚不到钱，我不需要外汇了。‘快速的富有’的承诺已经扔到了记忆深处。而天花乱坠的‘嗯，x先生肯定正确因为他是一家大机构的主力交易员”，这些话已成过眼云烟。我已经不在乎别人说什么价格走势了。
我一次又一次的看着价格，一小时接着一小时，一天接着一天。
作者: linx 时间: 2009-2-20 08:22
“放弃了蜡烛”？？
对我来说，评论、新闻预测、专家建议、sar、pivots、fibs这些可以全部放弃，唯一不能放弃的就是K线（蜡烛图）本身了
作者: myj 时间: 2009-2-20 10:30
此君用的线图
作者: scpj 时间: 2009-2-20 17:21
线图用来看阻力线和支撑线是再好不过了
不过光靠这个来做单子，真的需要非常好的盘感
作者: coollyw 时间: 2009-2-22 15:42
这几天又研究了一下，做了些PT，发现其实他在下单过程中还考虑到小时效应，就是关注1H开始和结束的时候价格的变化和变化速度，1H开始的走向很可能延续一个小时。不过还是需要盘感来辅助判断。
作者: mily 时间: 2009-2-23 06:28
哇塞，什么指标也没有，怎么判断趋势啊
作者: coollyw 时间: 2009-2-25 23:57
今天主角开网络会议，live show哦，从下午开始也跟着demo玩玩，跟到现在太累了，睡觉了。不过到现在貌似没有什么亮点，我发现做短线其实蛮好玩啊，我也可以做哦，嘿嘿。
作者: KK999 时间: 2009-2-27 03:04
原帖由 coollyw 于 2009-2-25 23:57 发表 
今天主角开网络会议，live show哦，从下午开始也跟着demo玩玩，跟到现在太累了，睡觉了。不过到现在貌似没有什么亮点，我发现做短线其实蛮好玩啊，我也可以做哦，嘿嘿。
连续三天都有Live Show.
想观摩的明天还有一场
今天好奇有去看看
我看到2HR就闷到想睡...
居然没一单赚..
但看起来没啥盘感(个人观感喔)
只是在场上跑来跑去
等待遇到突破的机会.(第2 lot要赚够本的缘故)
我猜应该是方法可以赚钱
而不是很强的盘感
新手大概也能这样赚
关键就是第二Lot, 与按规律操作并止损
作者: coollyw 时间: 2009-2-27 09:26
原帖由 KK999 于 2009-2-27 03:04 发表 
连续三天都有Live Show.
想观摩的明天还有一场
今天好奇有去看看
我看到2HR就闷到想睡...
居然没一单赚..
但看起来没啥盘感(个人观感喔)
只是在场上跑来跑去
等待遇到突破的机会.(第2 lot要赚够本的缘 ...
呵呵。昨天我看了一点就退出了，感觉他好像没有用他在帖子里面的方法啊。不过我觉得他的方法最关键的就是资金管理，这个是盈利的关键。
作者: coollyw 时间: 2009-2-27 20:03
经过几天的的观察，我发现这个家伙好像根本就是乱来，毫无章法，不知道他的交易记录是怎么做出来的。不过我自己这几天倒是有些心得，我发现1M结合5M scalp效果很好啊，不过一定要看蜡烛图，线图不行。而且交叉盘E/J一定要参考分别的两个直盘E/U，U/J，否者很伤。
[ 本帖最后由 coollyw 于 2009-2-27 20:05 编辑 ]
作者: KK999 时间: 2009-2-28 11:37
原帖由 coollyw 于 2009-2-27 20:03 发表
经过几天的的观察，我发现这个家伙好像根本就是乱来，毫无章法，不知道他的交易记录是怎么做出来的。不过我自己这几天倒是有些心得，我发现1M结合5M scalp效果很好啊，不过一定要看蜡烛图，线图不行。而且交叉盘E/J一 ...
那家伙的方法还是可以赚钱~~
当有人转贴时, 看了就懂了
去看Live show是想看"盘感"
可惜那家伙有点乱做~~心态问题!!
忽略了趋势!
其实他也可怜..
自己赚钱自己爽就好了
却想分享给别人
结果却是惹了一身腥
作者: 355643933 时间: 2009-3-9 10:25
支持,感谢楼主提供!!!!!!!
作者: 钟馗耍刀 时间: 2009-3-14 10:23
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