Determinants of FX rates
... Market psychology
Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:
• Flights to quality: Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven." There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The Swiss franc and gold have been traditional safe havens during times of political or economic uncertainty.[11]
• Long-term trends: Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends. Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise from economic or political trends.[12]
• "Buy the rumor, sell the fact": This market truism can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a market being "oversold" or "overbought".[13] To buy the rumor or sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias known as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance of outside events to currency prices.
• Economic numbers: While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect: the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.
• Technical trading considerations: As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns.[14]
... 4.决定汇率的因素
... 4.3 市场心理 市场心理和交易者的观念通过不同的途径影响外汇交易市场：
• 资本逃逸：不确定的国际事件会导致投资者寻求“安全港”的“资本逃逸”现象。相对其他对手货币，较坚挺的货币需求会有大幅增加，从而抬高其价格。当政治、经济出现不确定性时，瑞士法郎和黄金被传统上认为是安全港。[11]
• 长期趋势：货币市场通常向可见的长期趋势运动。尽管，货币不像实物商品一般按照年份递增, 但是商业周期确实让人能够感受到这一点。商业周期分析家从经济或者政治趋势中来观察长期价格趋势。[12]
• “买传闻，卖事实”：这个市场的至理真言能用到很多货币状况上。在某事件即将发生前，市场会反应其尚未到来的真实影响，当期待的事件来临市场反应却又正好相反。这也可能是由于市场“超卖”或“超买”所致。[13]买谣传或卖事实也有可能是当投资者过于关注事件对货币价格产生影响的认知偏见的一个例子。
（译者注：本段中提到的事件，很多时候指经济数据发表或者高级官员的谈话，参看译者注解“经济数据”；这一段很难翻译，作者有欲言又止的意思，特别注意其对事件发生前市场反应的那句评述。）
• 经济数据：经济数据肯定可以反应已经政策，一些报告和数据具有护身符的作用：数据本身重要的导致市场心理并且对短期走势起到立竿见影的作用。市场焦点会随时而变。例如，在最近几年，货币供给、劳动就业水平、贸易平衡数字和通胀数字都受聚光灯的照耀。
• 技术派交易的影响：在其他的市场，交易者会试图利用某个货币对如EUR/USD价格累计移动形成明显的样式。很多交易者研究价格图表以便找到相似的样式。[14]（译者：即我们常说的经验技术派。）
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