EUR/USD交易室

noid

个人意见 欧元区间整理，等待方向
CHF更偏向空头。英镑空头也比较明显
完毕

redstart

认同楼上的分析

目前持有多头USD/JPY @104.59

各位周末愉快

redstart

典型的M-C-M

E/U第一目标要到1.58

U/CHF 应该能到1.02 (参加下图)



。。。。美元又成臭狗屎了

风林山火

昨天晚上空了美瑞，今天下午又加仓……

但是刚刚才听说，欧瑞才是瑞士法郎的直盘，流动性远比美瑞高，同时也是市场认可的美瑞领先指标……   这就有点郁闷了，因为欧瑞的图形仅仅是震荡，并没有表现出很强的向下趋势。

请教redstart兄，以上的说法有道理吗？

redstart

欧瑞才是瑞士法郎的直盘，流动性远比美瑞高

流动性（主要货币对）从大到小的排列是 Eur/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd（这个有点意外）, Usd/Chf, Usd/Cad, Eur/Jpy, Eur/Gbp, Eur/Chf...

                                                                                                ----------数据来源BIS 2007的统计数据

希望能有所帮助～

风林山火

非常感谢redstart兄及时的回复。

我刚才自己也做了一翻分析，我之所以空美瑞，原因有2：

1   欧美强势突破了自4月底开始的一个大箱体，这表示美圆走弱，应该选择非美做多。

2   美瑞占美圆指数15%的权重，所以大部分时间都跟欧美反着走，而且从图形上开，明显的
  头肩顶，下落的目标可以看到0。99，利润空间比欧美大。

以上两条理由都跟欧瑞没什么关系，即便没有欧瑞的配合，只要美圆走弱，做空美瑞就不会错，所以坚定持仓。

redstart

翻译一篇文章 不管作者判断是否正确 里面有很多有价值的东西值得我们学习


The Dollar Has Bottomed
by NewsTraderFX

As hard as you may find it to believe, it looks like the weak Dollar trend has bottomed and that the Dollar is poised to make some recovery. The currency most likely to suffer the largest loss against the Dollar is the Pound. The Euro should lose some value as well and certainly, without a major change in the present circumstances, the Euro will not be heading towards new records.

也许你很难相信。疲软的美元趋势看上去已经见底了并准备反攻。英镑将是对美元损失最严重的货币。欧元也将失去一些价值，如果当前状况没有显著变化的话，欧元不会创新高。

Since I’m known basically as a fundamental trader, let me set the record straight. I’m a fusion trader, as in, I trade a fusion of fundamentals and technicals. I don’t believe either works very well without the other because fundamentals help provide the overall direction while technicals help provide price entries.

也许我被看成是基本面的交易员，但其实我是结合体，即联合基本面和技术面来做交易。我认为最完美的搭配是通过对基本面的理解来决定整体方向，技术来帮助出入场。

I’m not gong to provide you with a long list of facts and figures, because I’m sure the vast majority of readers are well versed in the basic picture. Suffice to say that a U.S. housing recession, weak job market, falling consumer confidence and rising commodity inflation are posing a serious threat not just for the U.S but for the U.K. and for Europe as well.

我不准备给你提供一长串的事实和数字。因为我肯定大部分的读者对目前的经济状况有了基本了解。美国房市的衰退，疲软的就业市场，一路写跌的消费者信心以及商品通胀。这些都是对美国(经济)严重的威胁，同样对英国和欧盟也是如此。

As with many instances in life, sometimes what’s not said speaks louder than what is. In this case, what’s not happening is speaking loudest, at least to me. Have you noticed that with all the weak U.S. data (and absolute lack of positive data) the Dollar has stopped depreciating? That fact is screaming, as far as I can hear.

生活中的很多实例告诉我们，有时候没说的比已经说的更有价值。在这个情况下，没有发生的更有影响力，自少对于我来说。你是否注意到尽管美国一直是疲弱数据（完全缺乏正面数据）但美元已经停止下跌？事实已经在尖叫了，至少我听到了。

Yes, there are some good reasons for this. For one thing, the Fed is basically done lowering interest rates in this cycle though some feel the Fed is merely paying lip service to the inflation threat. For me, rate reductions ended the day Martin Feldstein opined in the WSJ that the Fed had gone far enough.

是的，是有很多好的理由在支撑这个观点。一方面，美联储基本已经完成了降息周期，尽管有些人还觉得没有，认为美联储仅仅在口头警告通胀的威胁。对我来说，自从Martin Feldstein在华尔街日报发表观点后，降息已经结束。

We can see this plainly in Fed Funds Implied Probabilities which are (post Tuesday’s housing data) still pricing in a 35% chance for an increase in October and a 28% chance for one in September. No, it doesn’t mean the Fed will raise rates then, but it certainly means the market is now telling the Fed it neither expects, nor wants, another rate reduction. Even more importantly, through circumstance (or even design if you wish), the Fed got to do something that the BoE and ECB will very likely not have the opportunity of doing, at least in the foreseeable future. This is crucial, because it leaves the Fed in a totally different position than the other central banks.

我们可以清楚的看到联储基金隐含概率（在周二的房屋数据公布后）仍然显示分别在10月份有35%的机会9月份28%的机会提高利率。当然，这并不意味着联储在那个时候肯定升息，但至少表明市场已经在告诉美联储它不希望也不要求再一次的降息。更加重要的是，在当前周边条件下（也许是故意设计的），美联储能够做英国央行和欧洲央行没机会做的事情，至少在可预见的将来。这非常重要，因为相比其他央行美联储目前处于一个完全不同的位置。

The Fed had the chance to lower interest rates before the commodity inflation set in, bringing real, effective interest rates near or even below zero. Essentially, the Fed’s target rate is below the rate of inflation while BoE and ECB target rates are above. And even though this is not being played out in the current market conditions, that’s an enormous advantage for the U.S. economy that is going to be taking hold. The only way it won’t is if things work out against the most dogmatic of economic theories: rates below inflation are expansionary, while rates above are generally not.

美联储已经在商品通胀之前降低利率，使得实际的有效利率接近或低于0.事实上，美联储的目标利率已经低于通胀率而英国央行和欧洲央行的目标利率在通胀率之上。尽管这还没有在当前的市场状况中体现出来，但很明显美国的经济将拥有非常大的优势。除非最经典的经济学理论不再适用：当名义利率低于通胀率时经济扩展，反之经济收缩。

Now here’s something that I hope you’ll find as interesting as I do. The Dollar Index (DXY) has made two important bullish technical indications on the daily chart. First, it’s made a true triple (or even quadruple) bottom after a long slide, clearly establishing a base of support. In addition, DXY is now making a Double Stochastic Over Sold (DS OS) indication:

这里在给你看一个你觉得有兴趣的东西。下图中的美元指数在日图上已经完成了两套牛市指标。第一，在长期下跌后，已经完成了3重底（甚至是四重底）。第二，美元指数正在完成Stochastic双重底+超卖。

sixsi

嗯，学习了。精通英文就是好哇，换我看这篇文章起码得半天时间，呵呵。

redstart能说明出处吗？

刚刚搜索了一下，是不是www.forexfactory.com上的那个newstraderFX

[ 本帖最后由 sixsi 于 2008-5-29 01:36 编辑 ]

sixsi

我还看了他的关于G/U的分析，后面部分似乎讲的是道琼斯工业平均指数的分析
As far as the Pound goes, there are a number of fundamental factors that suggest the U.K. economy is in for a bit of a rough patch. I’ll be happy to get into that in a later post if you wish, but for now, let’s go back to what was mentioned about the BoE’s target rate. It’s above the rate of inflation and it’s very likely to remain that way. The BoE is simply not going to have the opportunity to obtain real, effective interest rates at or even near 0 as the economy slows because of the commodity inflation.
GBP/USD is showing the exact opposite on the charts as is the DXY (I’m showing this with the iPath GBP/USD ETN, but it’s on the forex charts as well). It’s made a bearish Double Stochastic Overbought:




On the chart above we see the second overbought price is at a level that’s lower than where the previous overbought was, indicating the market still sees price as relatively overvalued even though it’s below where price was previously considered to be too high. I could show you a number of instances where Double Stochastics have been an incredibly accurate indication, but I’ll leave you with the one I find the most fascinating.

For decades, the DOW Transportation index has been considered a leading indicator for the overall market. Charles Dow himself saw it that way. On the chart below, the DOW Transportation index has made a DS OS. That’s a bullish indication and we see that price has risen since there.

But guess the date the DS OS was made (think about it before I tell you). The DS OS on the DOW Transportation index was made on March 10, the lowest closing price during the downturn, the exact bottom of the DJIA (and S&P 500) markets!

redstart

刚刚搜索了一下，是不是www.forexfactory.com上的那个newstraderFX

恩 是的。这帮人写的东西都是实实在在的干货，而且均是交易员出生。每篇文章 我都会一字不漏的看完。