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世界著名交易系统之【CatFx50】

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发表于 2008-12-25 17:29:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
该交易系统由TSD论坛的Nina 原创,中文翻译有汇客的ebank制作。

经国内外众多高手验证,该系统是一个能长期稳定赢利的系统。现已有不少交易者利用该系统受益匪浅。特转一份于广大汇友,希望大家早日实现稳定盈利!!

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-25 17:30:16 | 显示全部楼层
RECAP of CatFX50 (30-09-06):
Main tools:

EMA50 on chart.

EMA120 on chart.

Hist_Step_MA_Stoch_KV1_Ex_03 set at 2000 bars.
Set filters on Step: +0,04 and -0,04.


Plot aNina_v1, set it at 9000 cbars.

Hist_StepMA_Stoch is the main indicator here. When Hist_StepMA_Stoch and aNina give signal simultaneously, the better. Do not trade if they give opposite signals.
TSRDailyRange Calculator or TSR range2.
This calculator tells us the daily range of the pair. It is very important to know it. It is very important to know too where the pair is in relation to its daily range when we get a signal. It tells us the stop loss we should use according to the daily range and to a Risk/Reward ratio of 3:1. You can change the R/R. The stop loss it shows is a mathematical one, it is not based on any kind of pattern nor Technical Analysis. Do not forget that.

TF: 30 minutes.
Trade time: 08:00cet to 18:00cet

Optional tools:
FX Sniper’s MA. Set it to 50 and you will have EMA 50 with colors.
FiboPiv_v2
MAX Movin Average set at 50, 14, 2000, 2
Camarilladt7 with L3, L4, L5 and H3, H4 and H5.




Standard or Level 1 signals:
Buy when price crosses EMA 50 and new bar opens above. Hist_StepMA_Stoch must be green.

Sell when price crosses EMA 50 and new bar opens below. Hist_StepMA_Stoch must be red.

If price and Hist_StepMA_Stoch crosses are simultaneous, the better.


Level 2 signals (riskier):

For instance, when price is above EMA 50 with Hist_StepMA_Stoch in green. Price then opens one bar at least below EMA 50 and Hist_StepMA_Stoch keeps in green mode. When price opens again above EMA 50 with Hist_StepMA_Stoch validating (green), we can buy. The opposite for a sell.

Level 3 signals (riskier):

For instance, we are in bullish mode: price above EMA 50 and Hist_StepMA_Stoch in green. Suddenly, price goes down crossing or without crossing EMA 50 and obviously without opening below it. Hist_StepMA_Stoch changes to red. We buy when price goes up again always validated by Hist_StepMA_Stoch that should change to green again.

Level 4 signals (Take care):
Level 4 is when price, after a consolidation of a few bars, breaks through the last high or low. The main thing we need is an indication of strength, and if we don't get it, it could be a trap!
Obviously, the breakout down should have Hist_StepMa_Stoch in red and green for the opposite.










The main difference between Level 2 and Level 3:
On Level 3 the price doesn't have to cross the EMA50 line
The other difference is that Hist_StepMA_Stoch briefly changes color

Level 4:

Notice the price breakout in the illustration? It would be hard to ignore, wouldn't it?
You don't have to wait for the price to close to do the trade, get on board and ride that baby!




Something to take into account:

Pairs to trade: EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD.

When bar opens more than 20 pips above/below EMA 50, the signal is riskier.


Do not buy/sell, for instance, EURUSD because GBPUSD has a signal. Wait for the signal to come in each pair you want to trade. Look at EURGBP, USDCHF and US Dollar Index always.


Stop Loss and Money Manegement:
We can not jump in a trade without knowing the amount of pips we expect to make. We can not know that seriously without a stop loss. The stop loss will tell us what we should expect according to the Risk/Reward ratio we use. For instance, we get a validated signal to buy EURUSD at 1.2700. We
decide to go with 1 standard lot. OK, where do we place the stop loss? A common and today useless stop loss is 34 pips. So, we are risking 34 pips, that is $340. If we do not want to gamble, we should expect to make $690 at least. That is 69 pips or 2:1 R/R. But the optimum R/R is 3:1. That is $1030 or 103 pips.

EURUSD has usually a daily range between 60 and 80 pips. It is clear that we will not be able to make those 103 pips in the majority of cases. Then, what’s the point of using a fixed stop loss of 34 pips? We should not do that if we want to keep our money. So, we need to place a stop loss according to the risk and reward we assume and expect.
Well, you could say, as I want a 3:1, I place the stop loss 5 pips below entry. That is, I’m risking 5 pips to make 15. Great!!! But this does not work that way, sorry. We use charts because we think they tell us what to do according to what price has done. If we use a s/l of 5 pips without looking at what price has done before we get the signal, we are not trading, but betting. What to do, then?
We need to look at what price has done during the previous bars. They will tell us where to place the stop loss. If the “logic” stop loss we get is too high according to what we expect, we should not take that signal. So, lets say it is 17:30cet and we get a signal to buy EURUSD. The stop loss we need to use is 15 pips and EURUSD has only 10 pips to go up according to its daily range. Do we take it?
But, you could say: “Daily ranges break sometimes”. Yes, they do. You said it: sometimes.
We should not forget that if we scale during the trade, our risk/reward ratio changes, because we acceped a risk at the beginning of the trade according to a assumed reward we will not get; as the reward will not be the same at the end of the trade if we have taken partial profits during its development.

Here you can read more about stop loss and Money Manegement:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50536-post6240.html
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50550-post6242.html
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50553-post6243.html

Final:
CatFX50 easy system is a winning one, but it is not a Holy Grail nor a money machine. Use common sense.
Do not forget that CatFX50 has not an exit strategy. Therefore, and it is mandatory, you need to know your risk/reward ratio before placing a trade.
I make daily recaps of the signals CatFX50 gives. These recaps can be deceptive, because you see the huge amount of pips the system generates every single day. But no one can take them all. It is impossible. Do not forget that. Maybe, someday, a very smart trader will find the way to grab them all. Since then, take care and good luck!!!

FOCUS, PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE.

Nina



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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-25 17:33:11 | 显示全部楼层
RECAP of CatFX50 (30-09-06):
Main tools:
主要工具:

EMA50(图表中)
EMA120(图表中)

Hist_Step_MA_Stoch_KV1_Ex_03 设置为2000bar
设置过滤器步长为+0,04 和 -0,04

aNina_v1, 设置为9000cbar.
Hist_StepMA_Stoch是这里的主指标。好的进场机会在Hist_StepMA_Stoch与aNina给出的信号方向相同时产生。二者信号方向相反时不要进行交易。

TSR Daily Range和TSR range2范围计算器。
这个计算器告诉我们货币对每天的波动范围。这是个非常重要的指标。另外了解货币对在何处与其每日波动范围相关联,以及我们获得这个信号的时间也是非常重要的。他告诉我们为了得到3:1的风险/回报率,我们当采用与每日范围相符的止损值;当然你可以改变其中风险/回报的比值。这个止损是通过单纯的算术方法得出的,它不基于任何模型也不是通过技术分析得出,别忘了这一点。
适用图表: 30分钟。
交易时段: 08:00 cet 到18:00 cet。(注:CET是中欧时间,EST是美东时间。EST=CET-6,北京时间=CET+7。
可选工具:
FX Sniper’s MA,设置为50,你会得到一个有颜色的EMA 50。
FiboPiv_v2
最大移动平均设置为 50, 14, 2000, 2
Camarilladt7 with L3, L4, L5 and H3, H4 and H5.

标准信号(一级信号)
当价格向上穿越EMA50并且新的bar起始价格其上方时进行买入操作。(此时Hist_StepMA_Stoch必须是绿色)。
当价格向下穿越EMA50并且新的bar起始价格其下方时进行卖出操作。(此时Hist_StepMA_Stoch必须是好色)。
如果价格和Hist_StepMA_Stoch穿越同时发生,信号效果更佳。

二级信号(高风险):
比如,当价格高于EMA50,并且Hist_StepMA_Stoch呈绿色。新的烛起始价格稍低于EMA50,同时Hist_StepMA_Stoch保持绿色。当价格重新开启与EMA50之上,并且Hist_StepMA_Stoch确认为绿色时我们可以进行买操作。若情况恰相反我们则作卖操作。

三级信号(更高风险)

比如,我们现在正处于看涨的行情当中:价格高于EMA50并且Hist_StepMA_Stoch呈现绿色。价格突然下跌穿越或者未穿越EMA50线,只是新的价格并没有开启于其下方。 Hist_StepMA_Stoch 变为红色,如果出现这种情况,我们在价格重新向上并且以Hist_StepMA_Stoch重新回到绿色为确认信号时进行买操作。

四级信号(谨慎使用)
当在几条烛呈现稳固之后,价格突破前期高点或低点。这时我们需要的东风就是强度指标,如果没有那么这里可能会是一个陷阱。

二级信号与三级信号的主要区别在于:
在三级信号中,价格不必穿越EMA50线。
另外,Hist_StepMA_Stoch的颜色会短暂发生变化。

四级信号:
看到插图中的价格突破了吗?很难视而不见吧,不是吗?
你不必等到价格关闭再作交易,翻身上马肆意驰骋吧!


一些需要考虑的情况:

在作 EURUSD, USDCHF 和 GBPUSD交易的时候
如果烛条开启位高于/低于EMA50线上方/下方20点,信号具有高度风险。

在某些情况下不要贸然进行交易。比如你想交易EURUSD,此时在GBPUSD上出现了一个信号,千万别手指发抖,等到这个信号出现在你要交易的货币对上在作动作,并且密切关注EURGBP、USDCHF和美元指数。

止损和资金管理策略:
我们不能在不清楚自己要从交易中获利多少点的情况下盲目入市;在不设定止损的情况下我们也不可能清楚的知道我们要从交易中获利多少。设定止损,我们就可以从既定的风险回报率中知道我们期望的回报额。比如,我们跟随一个有效的信号在1.2700买入一标准手EUEUSD。OK,我们把止损位定在哪儿呢?一个常用但现在不再使用的止损是34点,因而我们承担34点的风险,就是340美元。如果你不想赌一把,你至少应当预期赚到690美元。这时风险回报率是2:1。但是最优的风险回报率是3:1,就是1030美元或者说是103点。

EURUSD每天波动的范围大约在60到80点之间。很显然,在大多数情况下我们都不能赚到103点。那么,设定34点的固定止损目的何在呢?我们应该这样做,这会让我们亏掉老本的。因此我们应该按照我们假定和预期的风险回报来设定止损。

很好,你可能会说:“我想赚15点,嗯……3:1,我设5点止损。你太有才了,但千万别这么干。很抱歉,我们是用图表是因为我们认为按照过去的价格走势我们能够从中知道下一步应该怎么做。如果你一看见信号,连既往价格都不瞅一眼,直接就设5点止损,那只能说你是在下注而不是在交易。
我们应该参考过去几个烛的价格,因为它能告诉我们应该在何处设置止损。如果“合逻辑”的止损位与我们期望的结果高出太多,我们就拒绝这个信号。那么,比如在17:30cet我们得到了一个EURUSD的买信号,我想要把止损设置为15点,但是根据按照每日EURUSD的价格波动范围我应该把它设置为10点,这时我该怎么办呢,我应该服从这个信号吗?
但是你可能会说:“日价不是突破了好几次吗?”是的没错,这是你说的“几次”而已。
我们应该时刻记住如果我们在交易中“scale”(这里不好翻译,按照scale的所有释义都套不到这里去!请高手帮忙吧。)我们的风险回报率就变了,因为在交易开始的时候风险/回报率就已经定下来了,他的值是按照我们假定的获利来确定的。如果在发展的过程中我们提取了部分的利润那么我们最终的获利将会与我们预期的不一致。
从下列地址您能够阅读更多关于止损和财产管理的文章:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50536-post6240.html
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50550-post6242.html
http://www.forex-tsd.com/50553-post6243.html

写在后面:
CatFX50易用系统是个迷人的东西,不过他既不是聚宝盆也不是摇钱树。按常识来看,别忘了CatFX50没有一套固定的交易策略。因此,这是一套托管系统,在作交易之前你必须知道你要的风险/回报率。
我每天都对CatFX50给出的信号作一些重点重述。这些重述可能具有迷惑性,因为每一天你都看到大量系统生成的点(pips)但是没有人能把它们全部掌握。记住这是不可能的。也许有一天有个超牛X交易员找到一种方法来把握这所有的一切。静候佳音吧,多加小心并祝您好运!!!
发表于 2009-1-5 00:33:47 | 显示全部楼层
确实是个非常不错的系统
发表于 2009-1-10 19:44:32 | 显示全部楼层
非常不错的系统,xiexie!
发表于 2009-1-19 22:44:53 | 显示全部楼层
非常不错的系统,xiexie!
发表于 2009-3-9 10:34:40 | 显示全部楼层
支持,感谢楼主提供!!!!!!!
发表于 2009-3-9 15:53:28 | 显示全部楼层

打不开

为什么我下载以后解压后没有找到安装软件呢
谁能帮我看下啊
发表于 2009-3-9 16:39:40 | 显示全部楼层
你把所有的mq4编译一下,把编译出的ex4放到\experts\indicators下,tpl放到\templates下,然后装载模板看看
发表于 2009-3-10 02:07:14 | 显示全部楼层
支持,感谢楼主提供!!!!!!!
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